SPX 1546.91 -14.89At 13:41 Op 1562.25 Hi 1564.74 Lo 1543.59 Prev 1561.80
As much as the SP500 was oversold in mid-August, it is now as overbought. The recent move in the past 5-6 weeks has been on anemic volume (1.3 billion average NYSE and 1.9 billion average composite), needless to say, and it has reached an extreme overbought level on a MACD chart in which its faster MACD line is crossing below its slower. Also, in the most recent gain, the SP500 never made a genuine move above its previous high in mid July, which was on greater volume (1.6 billion average NYSE and 2.3 billion composite), and by and large, the premise that LBO's and rumors of LBO's were running rampant, which right now is not as likely.
I think a 5-10% (80-160 points) correction is looming in the index, most susceptible to this move will be tech equipment which has made staggering gains in the past 2 months, semiconductors where the SOX has formed a head and shoulders top in the past 6 months, as well as financials (banks and broker dealers) which have had a difficult time rebounding from their initial selloffs earlier this year and have broken through significant support levels. Banks and broker dealers will face harsh sell-offs due to credit crunch and exposure to bad debt structured issues.
SOX 486.41 -1.02At 13:27 Op 487.70 Hi 491.33 Lo 485.64 Prev 487.43
As much as the SP500 was oversold in mid-August, it is now as overbought. The recent move in the past 5-6 weeks has been on anemic volume (1.3 billion average NYSE and 1.9 billion average composite), needless to say, and it has reached an extreme overbought level on a MACD chart in which its faster MACD line is crossing below its slower. Also, in the most recent gain, the SP500 never made a genuine move above its previous high in mid July, which was on greater volume (1.6 billion average NYSE and 2.3 billion composite), and by and large, the premise that LBO's and rumors of LBO's were running rampant, which right now is not as likely.
I think a 5-10% (80-160 points) correction is looming in the index, most susceptible to this move will be tech equipment which has made staggering gains in the past 2 months, semiconductors where the SOX has formed a head and shoulders top in the past 6 months, as well as financials (banks and broker dealers) which have had a difficult time rebounding from their initial selloffs earlier this year and have broken through significant support levels. Banks and broker dealers will face harsh sell-offs due to credit crunch and exposure to bad debt structured issues.
SOX 486.41 -1.02At 13:27 Op 487.70 Hi 491.33 Lo 485.64 Prev 487.43
XBD 237.31 -5.07 iAt 13:42 Op 242.38 Hi 242.38 Lo 236.52 Prev 242.38
BKX 105.90 -2.07At 13:42 Op 107.97 Hi 108.09 Lo 105.66
BKX 105.90 -2.07At 13:42 Op 107.97 Hi 108.09 Lo 105.66
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